India is presently in constant fear of an impending third wave of Covid-19 in the country which may occur towards the end of this year due to the lack of covid appropriate behaviors according to experts. However, a member of the government panel tasked with modeling coronavirus cases stated that the positivity rate in the third wave might be half the number of cases lodged in the second wave.
Manindra Agarwal is the man that is working with the Sutra Model, a panel that was formed by the Department of Science and Technology last year to forecast the surge of coronavirus cases using mathematical models, has stated that the infection might reach far and wide if a new variant comes into play. However, infection rates will be half of the second wave.
With Agarwal being a scientist in IIT Kanpur and M Vidyasagar, another scientist with IIT-Hyderabad, and Lt. Gen Madhuri Kanitkar, Deputy Chief (Medical) of Integrated Defence Staff, as members has been on the receiving end for not predicting the ferocity of the second wave. With a detailed report on its way, Agarwal stated that while making this model, the panel has taken into account the loss of immunity, effects of vaccination, and the possibility of a more virulent variant which were left out during the second wave.
It was said that if a new mutant emerges it will spread very fast among the masses but will be half of what the second wave was. Like how the delta variant mostly targets patients that have contracted another variant earlier. In an optimistic scenario, the rate of daily cases might be 50,000 to 1,00,000.
Agarwal also mentioned 3 factors for the delay. The first one being the loss of immunity in the recovered population, the second being vaccination-induced immunity. The third factor was the incorporation of the first and second factors in the Sutra model.